> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.kodiakadvisor.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Base Camp — Friday, August 28, 2026 - URL: https://www.kodiakadvisor.com/base-camp-friday-august-28-2026/ - Published: 2026-08-28T14:31:22.000Z - Updated: 2026-08-28T14:31:22.000Z - Author: Jeffrey Mansell - Tags: morning-brief # *Your premarket read — what moved overnight, and what it means for long-term investors. A 3-minute brief from Kodiak Capital Advisors.* --- ### The Setup At 10:00 this morning, Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair. Since taking the job in May he has been criticized for declining to spell out his "reaction function", plainly, *what would have to happen for him to move rates, in either direction*. This is his clearest chance to fill that gap. Everything else today is a supporting act. ### Stocks Futures were little changed to modestly lower before the open, with the Nasdaq 100 the soft spot as it gives back a slice of Thursday's surge, and the Dow roughly flat. The S&P 500 is still tracking toward a higher finish for the week. The reason for that is Nvidia, which delivered on Wednesday night: $96.2 billion in quarterly revenue, up 106% from a year ago, with October-quarter guidance implying growth near 90%. After an initial after-hours wobble, the stock closed up about 7% Thursday. Separately, PayPal fell roughly 16% premarket after Advent and Stripe abandoned their pursuit of the company. Our read: the Nvidia number was genuinely strong, and it still only tells you about one company's order book, not about whether your plan is working. ### Rates & The Fed The 10-year Treasury yield sits near 4.66% after rising two straight sessions on firmer-than-expected economic data, with the 2-year around 4.24%. What's notable is how split the market is on what comes next: interest-rate futures and prediction markets have been pointing to meaningfully different odds of a hike at the September 15–16 meeting, and several large banks think a hike is off the table entirely. That disagreement is the honest signal here, it means nobody has this figured out. Plain English: borrowing stays expensive, and cash and short-term bonds keep paying yields that looked unthinkable for most of the last fifteen years. Warsh can move both of those numbers before lunch. ### Commodities & The Dollar Brent crude is holding above $88 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, near $83, both rebounding this week as market attention shifted from Middle East sanctions toward escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war. Gold has stayed firm near $4,600 an ounce and is headed for a third consecutive weekly gain. Oil is the piece that reaches your kitchen table fastest, and it is currently working against the inflation progress the Fed wants to see. ### What It Means For You Today has the shape of a day markets will tell stories about afterward. But notice how little of it is actually actionable: you cannot know what Warsh will say, and even if you could, you could not know how several thousand institutions will interpret it in the following ninety seconds. The people who come through mornings like this well are not the ones who guessed right, they're the ones who never had to guess, because the money they need in the next two to three years was already somewhere it couldn't be hurt, and the money they don't need for a decade was already invested and left alone. If a single 10 a.m. speech could meaningfully change your life, that's useful information about your allocation, not about the Fed. ### On Deck Today - **Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote, 10:00 a.m. ET** — his first, at a symposium themed on financial innovation and payments. Watch for any framing of what would push him to move. - **University of Michigan consumer sentiment, final August reading, 10:00 a.m. ET** — the preliminary print dropped sharply to 51.0 from 55.2 in July, well below expectations. Whether that holds matters more than the Fed speech for what households actually do this fall. - **Chicago PMI, 9:45 a.m. ET**, a regional read on manufacturing activity. Next week brings the August jobs report, the last major labor data before the September Fed meeting. --- **A note from Kodiak** Markets give you a new reason to react every single morning. Our job is to help you tune out the noise and keep your plan on track. If you'd like a second opinion on how today's headlines fit your portfolio, [book a 15-minute intro call →](https://calendar.app.google/WsHnGPnQa3xDo9YRA?ref=kodiakadvisor.com). *Written by Jeffrey Mansell, Kodiak Capital Advisors, LLC.* ---