> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.kodiakadvisor.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Base Camp — Friday, November 06, 2026 - URL: https://www.kodiakadvisor.com/base-camp-friday-november-06-2026/ - Published: 2026-11-06T15:30:00.000Z - Updated: 2026-11-06T15:29:59.000Z - Author: Jeffrey Mansell - Tags: morning-brief *Your premarket read — what moved overnight, and what it means for long-term investors. A 3-minute brief from Kodiak Capital Advisors.* --- ### The Setup Thursday was the steepest drop for technology shares since the spring of 2025, and almost none of it was about the economy. October's jobs report lands at 8:30 this morning, the last big labor reading before the Fed meets. ### Stocks The S&P 500 fell 4.4%, the Dow 1,833 points, and the Nasdaq Composite 5.5%. That puts the Nasdaq in what the trade calls a correction, down more than 10% from its high, about 12% here. An index of semiconductor shares lost more than 12% on the day, and the Nasdaq-100 shed roughly $2.3 trillion of value. The Dow and S&P 500 are not close to correction. Nothing broke. No bank failed and no data disappointed. The selling came down to one question: whether the enormous sums being spent on artificial intelligence will earn a return, amplified by a new Democratic Congress expected to look harder at data centers, and by leveraged funds forced to sell into a falling market. The volatility index, the options market's fear gauge, jumped about 69% to near 28. Futures have swung both ways overnight, lower at Thursday evening's reopen, higher in Asian hours, modestly lower as this is written. Our read: this is one crowded idea being repriced, not a verdict on the economy. The same companies reported the same earnings a month ago, when this market was making records. ### Rates & The Fed Bonds did exactly what you own them for. The 2-year Treasury, the maturity most sensitive to Fed policy, fell about 11 basis points to roughly 4.47%, and the 10-year, which most mortgage and business-loan rates are priced against, eased to about 4.83%, near its lowest since early September. Traders also trimmed the odds of a December rate *increase* to around two-thirds, from about 80% earlier in the week. The Fed holds at 3.75%–4.00% and meets December 8–9. In plain English: cash and short-term bonds still pay you well, and nobody should budget on borrowing getting cheaper this year. ### Commodities & The Dollar Oil turned back up. Brent is near $100 and US crude near $92, both 2% to 4% higher after Iran reported three more tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, yet still down 12% on the week. Gold reached a two-week high above $4,120 before easing toward $4,070\. The dollar is little changed near 101.6. ### What It Means For You Add up what actually changed Thursday. Earnings: unchanged. Rates: lower. Oil: cheaper on the week. What moved was an opinion about profits that have not arrived yet, and roughly $2.3 trillion moved with it. Seen up close, that is not a malfunction but the ordinary machinery of a market, and the protection was never a better forecast. Notice what rose while stocks fell: Treasuries and gold, both called dull earlier this year. And notice that December rate-hike odds have gone from the mid-80s to 70%, back to 80%, and now two-thirds, in nine days. A portfolio built to survive several futures does not need you to pick one. General commentary only, not a view on any security, nor advice tailored to your situation. ### On Deck Today - **8:30 a.m. ET: the October jobs report.** About 60,000 jobs expected, unemployment seen holding at 4.2%, wages up 0.3%. September delivered 29,000 against a 93,000 forecast, with the two prior months revised down a combined 60,000 — revisions have been the story more often than the headline. - **10:00 a.m. ET: consumer sentiment**, the preliminary November reading, expected near 48, among the weakest on record. - **Several Fed officials speak** through the day, their first comments since Thursday's rout. --- **A note from Kodiak** Markets give you a new reason to react every single morning. Our job is to help you tune out the noise and keep your plan on track. If you'd like a second opinion on how today's headlines fit your portfolio, [book a 15-minute intro call →](https://calendar.app.google/KTaTMwtsj7QjUjDEA?ref=kodiakadvisor.com). *Written by Jeffrey Mansell, Kodiak Capital Advisors, LLC.*