Your premarket read — what moved overnight, and what it means for long-term investors. A 3-minute brief from Kodiak Capital Advisors.

The Setup

Big Tech delivered. After a bruising stretch for chip stocks, Amazon's blowout earnings, on the heels of Microsoft's historic 15% surge, have futures pointing higher into the final trading day of July, even as oil closes out a month it spent climbing more than 20%.

Stocks

S&P 500 futures are up about 0.3% this morning, with Nasdaq-100 futures roughly 1% higher. Amazon jumped around 10% in premarket trade after beating expectations, with its chip business a standout; Apple's shares swung after its own report Thursday. The through-line from this week's "Magnificent Seven" results: the AI buildout isn't slowing, with the four big cloud companies now forecasting a combined $720–745 billion in capital spending for 2026. The enthusiasm went global overnight, South Korea's tech-heavy KOSPI staged a rally sharp enough to trigger trading halts. Our read: strong earnings from real businesses are the good kind of news, but when a handful of companies drive wild swings and this much of the market's move, it's a reminder of why diversification exists.

Rates & The Fed

The bond market is more worried about the future. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed up to about 4.69% Thursday, its highest level since January, and the 30-year touched 5.23%, a 19-year high. The driver: inflation worries. The Fed held rates steady Wednesday, but three committee members voted to raise them, and markets now put roughly 60% odds on a quarter-point hike in September. Thursday's PCE report, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, offered mild relief, with core inflation easing to 3.3% from 3.4%, though that's still well above the 2% target. In other words: borrowing costs are grinding higher, but so are the yields on cash, CDs, and short-term bonds. Savers continue to get paid.

Commodities & The Dollar

Brent crude rose about 2% this morning to just under $90 a barrel and is on track for a gain of more than 20% in July, as renewed U.S.–Iran hostilities keep supply at risk. Gold is holding near record territory around $4,100 an ounce. The dollar fell sharply on suspicion that Japan intervened in currency markets again to prop up the yen. Higher energy prices are the main channel through which this conflict reaches your wallet, and the Fed's calculus.

What It Means For You

July gave investors both stories at once: stocks rallying on an AI earnings boom while bond yields and oil prices rose on inflation and war. Neither story cancels the other, a portfolio holds stocks and bonds precisely because you don't have to guess which one wins. Month-end is a natural moment to check your allocation against your plan, not against the headlines. If tech's run has drifted your mix meaningfully away from its targets, rebalancing, trimming what's grown, adding to what's lagged, is the disciplined response; chasing the winners is not.

On Deck Today

• Employment Cost Index, 8:30 a.m. ET — the Fed watches this quarterly read on wages closely; a hot number would strengthen the case for a September hike.
• University of Michigan consumer sentiment (final), 10:00 a.m. ET — includes inflation expectations, which matter more than usual with oil up 20% this month.
• Month-end — the last trading day of July; expect some mechanical rebalancing flows. Next week's calendar builds toward the July jobs report.

A note from Kodiak

Markets give you a new reason to react every single morning. Our job is to help you tune out the noise and keep your plan on track. If you'd like a second opinion on how today's headlines fit your portfolio, book a 15-minute intro call →.

Written by Jeffrey Mansell, Kodiak Capital Advisors, LLC.

Kodiak Capital Advisors, LLC is a registered investment adviser. This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or tax advice, an offer or solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. It does not take into account your individual circumstances. Market data is believed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal; past performance does not guarantee future results. See our full disclosures at [link].