Markets are closed today for Juneteenth. No premarket scramble — so instead, a calm look back at the week that was and the week ahead. A holiday brief from Kodiak Capital Advisors.

First, the holiday

Juneteenth marks the day in 1865 that news of emancipation finally reached the last enslaved Americans in Texas — more than two years after the Emancipation Proclamation. It became a federal holiday in 2021, and U.S. stock and bond markets are closed today. We hope you get a chance to step back from the screens. Markets reopen Monday.

The week that was

It was a genuinely consequential week, and it broke into two stories.

The Iran deal and the oil unwind. The U.S. and Iran reached an initial agreement to halt the war, lift the naval blockade, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with a 60-day window now opening for tougher questions like sanctions and the nuclear program. Markets reacted fast: stocks surged Monday (the Dow hit a record), and oil gave back its war premium — Brent slid toward $80, its lowest since early March, as traders bet supply was coming back online. The relief was real, but the hard part — clearing the strait and actually restoring flows — plays out over weeks, not headlines.

The Fed pivoted hawkish. On Wednesday, Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting held rates at 3.50%–3.75% in a unanimous vote — as expected. The surprise was the projections: the "dot plot" flipped from implying a cut back in March to now penciling in a year-end rate near 3.8%, with 17 of 18 officials seeing inflation risks tilted to the upside. Warsh also pared the Fed's statement down sharply and announced task forces to overhaul how the central bank operates. Translation: don't count on rate cuts arriving soon.

What it means for you

This week was a tidy illustration of why we don't manage money around headlines. The same five days delivered a geopolitical breakthrough that screamed "risk-on" and a Fed that quietly signaled "higher for longer" — cross-currents that would whipsaw anyone trying to trade them. A long-term plan absorbs both: lower oil is a tailwind for inflation and consumers, while a more cautious Fed is a reminder that cash and high-quality bonds are still paying you to be patient. Nothing this week changed the fundamentals of a well-built portfolio. That's the point.

When markets reopen Monday

• Oil and Hormuz follow-through — watch whether tankers are actually moving in volume; that's what turns the relief rally into something durable.
• The new rate path — with cuts pushed out, keep an eye on how bonds and rate-sensitive sectors (housing, utilities) settle into the higher-for-longer message.
• The consumer — May retail sales showed spending still holding up; next week's data will test whether that resilience continues.

A note from Kodiak

A quiet market day is a good moment to ask the bigger question: not "what happened this week," but "is my money set up for the next few years." If you'd like to talk through how this environment — steadier oil, a firmer Fed — fits your plan, book a 15-minute intro call →.

Happy Juneteenth from all of us at Kodiak. We'll be back in your inbox Monday morning.

Written by Jeffrey Mansell, Kodiak Capital Advisors, LLC.