Your premarket read — what moved overnight, and what it means for long-term investors. A 3-minute brief from Kodiak Capital Advisors.

The Setup

It has been a rough week for technology and a quietly good one for almost everything else. As we close the books on the week, the tech-heavy Nasdaq is on pace to finish down more than 4%, while the Dow — full of old-economy, dividend-paying names — actually notched a new record this week. That split is the whole story.

Stocks

Futures are mixed this morning: S&P 500 futures are down a touch, Nasdaq futures off about 0.6%, and Dow futures up modestly — the same pattern that has defined the week. Thursday's session captured it perfectly. The Nasdaq fell for a fourth straight day (its first four-day losing streak since February) even as Micron jumped 17% on blowout earnings, while Apple dropped 6% after announcing price increases on MacBooks and iPads. When a great earnings report can't lift the index, you're watching a crowded, expensive corner of the market let some air out — not the broad market breaking down. The fact that the Dow hit a record in the same week is the reassuring part: this is rotation, not collapse.

Rates & The Fed

The big number landed Thursday. Core PCE — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, stripping out food and energy — came in at 3.4% for May, the hottest since late 2023, with headline inflation running at 4.1%. That's the wrong direction, and markets noticed: traders now put the odds of a Fed rate hike in September near 68%, up from under 30% a week ago. The 10-year Treasury yield sits around 4.45%. For you, the message hasn't changed — borrowing stays expensive, but cash and short-term bonds keep paying a real, inflation-beating return while you wait.

Commodities & The Dollar

The relief valve is energy. Brent crude slipped to roughly $74 and is down nearly 20% over the past month as U.S.–Iran tensions ease and more supply returns to market. Cheaper oil is the quiet antidote to that hot inflation print — it flows straight to the gas pump and, over time, into softer prices. You can already see it in households: consumer sentiment ticked up off May's record low, with the biggest relief among lower-income families who feel fuel costs most.

What It Means For You

This week is a clean lesson in not judging "the market" by its loudest index. If you only watched the Nasdaq, you'd think the sky was falling; if you only watched the Dow, you'd think it was a banner week. Both were happening at once — and a diversified portfolio is designed precisely so you don't have to guess which headline wins. When one hot sector cools while the rest holds firm, that's diversification doing its job, not a signal to start trading. The disciplined move heading into the weekend isn't to act on the scary number; it's to notice whether a long tech run-up has quietly left you over-concentrated, and to address that calmly rather than reactively.

On Deck Today

• University of Michigan consumer sentiment (final, this morning) — confirms whether the early-June bounce off record lows held; a read on how households are absorbing inflation and lower gas prices.
• Quarter-end positioning — next week closes out the second quarter, so expect some portfolio reshuffling by big institutions that can add noise unrelated to fundamentals.
• The September rate question — every data point from here gets measured against it; watch oil and inflation headlines for clues on whether a hike firms up or fades.

A note from Kodiak

Markets give you a new reason to react every single morning. Our job is to help you tune out the noise and keep your plan on track. If you'd like a second opinion on how this week's tech wobble fits your portfolio, book a 15-minute intro call →.

Written by Jeffrey Mansell, Kodiak Capital Advisors, LLC.

Kodiak Capital Advisors, LLC is a registered investment adviser. This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or tax advice, an offer or solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. It does not take into account your individual circumstances. Market data is believed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal; past performance does not guarantee future results. See our full disclosures at [link].