Base Camp — Friday, October 23, 2026

Your premarket read — what moved overnight, and what it means for long-term investors. A 3-minute brief from Kodiak Capital Advisors.

The Setup

Two things happened this week that look contradictory and aren't: the AI trade cracked, and the bond market rallied hard. Both carry the same message, investors are starting to doubt the growth, not the inflation.

Stocks

Thursday was the week's event. The Nasdaq fell 2.6%, its worst day since June, after the largest social-media company reported and investors balked at what it plans to spend on artificial intelligence. The semiconductor index dropped nearly 7% and is down roughly 15% this month.

Friday has been two-sided and choppy, but the week's scoreboard tells the more useful story: the Dow is on pace for a third straight weekly gain, the Nasdaq for its second straight weekly loss. That gap is not a selloff, it is a rotation, out of the most expensive growth stories and into companies earning money today rather than in 2029.

Our read: a crowded trade getting repriced is normal and healthy. It is only a problem if you own more of it than you meant to.

Rates & The Fed

The 10-year Treasury yield, the benchmark most mortgage and business-loan rates are priced against, fell below 5% on Thursday in its biggest one-day drop in more than two years, touching a one-month low near 4.95%, and sits right around 5% this morning. Bonds rallying while stocks fall is the market hedging against slower growth, not celebrating lower inflation.

The Fed announces Wednesday, October 28. An October increase has been all but ruled out, leaving the benchmark at 3.75%–4.00%, but all 100 economists in the latest Reuters survey expect a December hike, and market pricing puts those odds better than 4-in-5.

This morning's data explains the discomfort: business activity cooled in October while the prices businesses charge hit their highest reading since August 2022. Consumers now expect 4.7% inflation over the next year, up from 4.6%, and sentiment sits near record lows.

Commodities & The Dollar

Brent crude pushed above $110 to a five-month high, up roughly 8% this week, after another wave of attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure added to the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate is back above $100, crude is up close to 85% this year. Gold slipped to just above $4,000, continuing its retreat from last week's highs.

What It Means For You

Slowing growth with rising prices is the one combination that makes every asset class look unattractive at once, and it is exactly when people make their worst decisions, because nothing feels safe. Cash loses to 4.7% expected inflation, bonds have repriced violently, and the most popular stocks just took a beating.

The answer is not to find the one thing that works. It is to already own several things that behave differently, in proportions you chose on a calm day, then rebalance back to them rather than chase whichever one just won. If this week made you want to do something, that is useful information about your allocation, not about the market. General commentary only, nothing here is a view on any specific security, nor advice tailored to your situation.

On Deck Today

• Already out this morning: business-activity surveys cooled to 57.6 from 58.4, with the sharpest rise in selling prices since August 2022; consumer sentiment held near its record low.
• Wednesday: the Fed's decision and the first read on third-quarter GDP, hours apart. A hold is expected; the language about December is what matters.
• Wednesday and Thursday: the two largest cloud companies and the biggest online retailer report. After this week, their spending plans matter more than their profits.
• Friday: the two largest US oil majors report — a first look at what $110 crude does to energy earnings.

A note from Kodiak

Markets give you a new reason to react every single morning. Our job is to help you tune out the noise and keep your plan on track. If you'd like a second opinion on how today's headlines fit your portfolio, book a 15-minute intro call →.

Written by Jeffrey Mansell, Kodiak Capital Advisors, LLC.

Kodiak Capital Advisors, LLC is a registered investment adviser. This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or tax advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. It does not consider the individual financial circumstances of any recipient. Information is obtained from sources believed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. For our full disclosures and Form ADV, see [link].